ABSTRACT

Under the rapidly changing technological environments, a significant effort has been undertaken to investigate promising technologies for the future and, accordingly, numerous studies have been conducted to develop an approach for identifying such technologies. One of the most frequently adopted approaches is patent analysis given that patent data are regarded as one of the most valuable and widely accepted sources to understand innovation activities. The term promising technology has been used in various contexts, but little effort has been made to provide a clear definition of it. As different perspectives may lead to different results, defining this concept is essential to obtain the best possible results. Thus, this study aims to develop a taxonomy of the promising technologies, and the following six perspectives along with their relevant patent analysis approaches are examined: key, outlier, vacant, emerging, new, and converging technologies. The research findings indicate that the concept of promising technology can be defined differently from diverse viewpoints, and this can be a basis for future studies.

摘要

在瞬息万变的技术环境下，已经进行了大量努力来研究未来有前途的技术，因此，已经进行了大量研究以开发一种识别此类技术的方法。专利分析是最常用的方法之一，因为专利数据被认为是了解创新活动的最有价值和被广泛接受的来源之一。有前途的技术一词已在各种情况下使用，但几乎没有做出明确的定义。由于不同的观点可能导致不同的结果，因此定义此概念对于获得最佳结果至关重要。因此，本研究旨在对有前景的技术进行分类，并研究了以下六个观点及其相关的专利分析方法：关键技术、异常技术、空缺技术、新兴技术、新技术和融合技术。研究结果表明，有前途的技术的概念可以从不同的角度进行不同的定义，这可以作为未来研究的基础。