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A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions
Nature Climate Change ( IF 29.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z
Shinichiro Fujimori , Volker Krey , Detlef van Vuuren , Ken Oshiro , Masahiro Sugiyama , Puttipong Chunark , Bundit Limmeechokchai , Shivika Mittal , Osamu Nishiura , Chan Park , Salony Rajbhandari , Diego Silva Herran , Tran Thanh Tu , Shiya Zhao , Yuki Ochi , Priyardarshi R. Shukla , Toshihiko Masui , Phuong V. H. Nguyen , Anique-Marie Cabardos , Keywan Riahi

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.



中文翻译:

具有不同减排量的国家情景框架

国家层面的气候行动对于实现未来几十年的全球温度目标至关重要。近期(2025-2030)计划在国家自主贡献中列出;下一步是提交 2050 年的长期战略。目前,支撑长期战略的国家情景协调不力,各国之间不相容,阻碍了对个别国家气候政策的评估。在这里,我们提出了一个系统的、标准化的、但灵活的情景框架,可以改变 2050 年的排放量,以构建长期的国家能源和气候减缓情景。将该框架应用于亚洲六个主要国家,揭示了可比情景下能源系统转型和投资需求方面的个别挑战。

更新日期:2021-05-28
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