ABSTRACT

This report is an outcome document of the Nagasaki 75th Anniversary Pandemic-Nuclear Nexus Scenarios Project, an international initiative aimed at exploring how the far-reaching effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (and future pandemics) could alter the landscape for nuclear risk and disarmament. The project was convened as a series of online workshops in October-November 2020, and co-sponsored by the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, in cooperation with the Nagasaki University Planetary Health Project and the Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA). The goals of the workshop were to (1) develop an analytical understanding of the interrelated nature of the co-occurring existential threats of nuclear weapons and global pandemics; (2) explore potential levers and pathways to influence the future under various conditions; and (3) identify concrete strategies to reduce the risk of nuclear war and resume nuclear disarmament by state and non-state actors, particularly in the Northeast Asia region.

摘要

本报告是长崎大流行 - 核联系情景项目 75 周年的成果文件，这是一项旨在探索 COVID-19 大流行（和未来大流行）的深远影响如何改变核风险和核裁军前景的国际倡议. 该项目于 2020 年 10 月至 11 月作为一系列在线研讨会召开，由长崎大学废除核武器研究中心 (RECNA)、亚太核不扩散与裁军领导网络 (APLN) 共同赞助)，以及鹦鹉螺安全与可持续性研究所，与长崎大学行星健康项目和东北亚和平与安全小组 (PSNA) 合作。研讨会的目标是 (1) 对核武器和全球流行病同时发生的生存威胁的相互关联性质形成分析性理解；(2) 探索在各种条件下影响未来的潜在杠杆和途径；(3) 确定减少核战争风险和恢复国家和非国家行为者核裁军的具体战略，特别是在东北亚地区。