ABSTRACT

This article provides an Asia-Pacific perspective on biological weapons and their relevance to nuclear deterrence in the pandemic era. The entire class of biological weapons is banned by international law; however, biological weapons are generally less costly and less technically challenging to develop than nuclear weapons. Conversely, nuclear weapons are openly possessed by multiple countries in the Asia-Pacific despite their corresponding cost and technical complexity. These two types of weapons of mass destruction – biological and nuclear – do not exist in isolation but in a multifactorial geopolitical environment where the threat and control of one impacts that of the other. A third factor that holds the potential to influence this dynamic is the increasing likelihood of natural outbreaks and pandemics. This paper explores potential intersections of biological and nuclear weapons in the pandemic context. First, it describes the threat of biological weapons, including history, threat assessment methodology, and specific threats in the Asia-Pacific region. Next, it reviews options for biological weapons control. Finally, it discusses nuclear deterrence and escalation in the context of both natural and deliberate biological events. It concludes with a summary of key points and recommendations for regional security and stability.

摘要

本文提供了有关生物武器及其与大流行时代核威慑的相关性的亚太视角。国际法禁止整类生物武器；然而，与核武器相比，生物武器的开发成本和技术难度通常较低。相反，尽管具有相应的成本和技术复杂性，但亚太地区多个国家还是公开拥有核武器。这两种大规模杀伤性武器——生物武器和核武器——并不是孤立存在的，而是存在于一个多因素的地缘政治环境中，其中一种的威胁和控制会影响另一种。有可能影响这种动态的第三个因素是自然爆发和大流行的可能性越来越大。本文探讨了大流行背景下生物武器和核武器的潜在交叉点。首先，它描述了生物武器的威胁，包括历史、威胁评估方法和亚太地区的具体威胁。接下来，它审查了生物武器控制的选项。最后，它在自然和蓄意的生物事件的背景下讨论了核威慑和升级。最后总结了区域安全与稳定的关键点和建议。它讨论了自然和蓄意的生物事件背景下的核威慑和升级。最后总结了区域安全与稳定的关键点和建议。它讨论了自然和蓄意的生物事件中的核威慑和升级。最后总结了对地区安全与稳定的要点和建议。