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Uncertainties of Sub-Scaled Supply and Demand in Agent-Based Mobility Simulations with Queuing Traffic Model
Networks and Spatial Economics ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s11067-021-09516-x
Aleksandr Saprykin , Ndaona Chokani , Reza S. Abhari

Agent-based models for dynamic traffic assignment simulate the behaviour of individual, or group of, agents, and then the simulation outcomes are observed on the scale of the system. As large-scale simulations require substantial computational power and have long run times, most often a sample of the full population and downscaled road capacities are used as simulation inputs, and then the simulation outcomes are scaled up. Using a massively parallelized mobility model on a large-scale test case of the whole of Switzerland, which includes 3.5 million private vehicles and 1.7 million users of public transit, we have systematically quantified, from 6 105 simulations of a weekday, the impacts of scaled input data on simulation outputs. We show, from simulations with population samples ranging from 1% to 100% of the full population and corresponding scaling of the traffic network, that the simulated traffic dynamics are driven primarily by the flow capacity, rather than the spatial properties, of the traffic network. Using a new measure of traffic similarity, that is based on the chi-squared test statistic, it is shown that the dynamics of the vehicular traffic and the occupancy of the public transit are adversely impacted when population samples less than 30% of the full population are used. Moreover, we present evidence that the adverse impact of population sampling is determined mostly by the patterns of the agents’ behaviour rather than by the traffic model.



中文翻译:

排队交通模型下基于Agent的移动性仿真中次级供需的不确定性

用于动态流量分配的基于代理的模型模拟单个或一组代理的行为,然后在系统规模上观察模拟结果。由于大规模模拟需要大量的计算能力并且运行时间很长,因此通常使用完整人口样本和缩小的道路容量作为模拟输入,然后放大模拟结果。在整个瑞士的大规模测试案例中使用大规模并行化移动模型,其中包括 350 万辆私家车和 170 万公共交通用户,我们从工作日的 6 105 次模拟中系统地量化了规模化的影响。模拟输出的输入数据。我们表明,从人口样本范围为全部人口的 1% 到 100% 的模拟以及交通网络的相应缩放比例来看,模拟的交通动态主要由交通网络的流量容量而不是空间属性驱动。使用基于卡方检验统计量的新交通相似性度量,表明当人口样本少于全部人口的 30% 时,车辆交通的动态和公共交通的占用率会受到不利影响被使用。此外,我们提供的证据表明,总体抽样的不利影响主要取决于代理的行为模式,而不是流量模型。而不是交通网络的空间属性。使用基于卡方检验统计量的新交通相似性度量,表明当人口样本少于全部人口的 30% 时,车辆交通的动态和公共交通的占用率会受到不利影响被使用。此外,我们提供的证据表明,总体抽样的不利影响主要取决于代理的行为模式,而不是流量模型。而不是交通网络的空间属性。使用基于卡方检验统计量的新交通相似性度量,表明当人口样本少于全部人口的 30% 时,车辆交通的动态和公共交通的占用率会受到不利影响被使用。此外,我们提供的证据表明,总体抽样的不利影响主要取决于代理的行为模式,而不是流量模型。

更新日期:2021-05-28
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