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Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03657-2
RN Singh , Sonam Sah , Bappa Das , Sunil Potekar , Amresh Chaudhary , H. Pathak

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall during the last 119 years (1901 to 2019) in different meteorological sub-divisions of India were analyzed using gridded rainfall data. Innovative trend analysis (ITA) was performed for detecting the trends in seasonal and annual rainfall. The results of long-term trends and their magnitudes obtained from the ITA method were compared with traditional Mann-Kendall (M-K), modified Mann-Kendall (mM-K), and linear regression analysis (LRA) methods. Significant trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were detected in almost all the sub-divisions of India. The monsoon and annual rainfall showed increasing trends in most sub-divisions of the peninsular and northwest India, whereas decreasing trends were observed in the central northeast part of the country. Winter rainfall showed decreasing trends in most of the sub-divisions of the country. Results of M-K/mM-K and LRA concurred with the trends detected by ITA. However, the ITA is more sensitive in detecting hidden trends missed out by the traditional M-K/mM-K and LRA tests. This study will provide scientific reference for assessment and proactive mitigation of climate change impacts on water resources to manage the risk of climate variability.



中文翻译:

1901–2019年印度降水时空变化的创新趋势分析

使用网格降雨数据分析了印度不同气象分区过去 119 年(1901 至 2019 年)降雨的时空趋势。进行了创新趋势分析 (ITA) 以检测季节性和年降雨量的趋势。将通过 ITA 方法获得的长期趋势结果及其幅度与传统的 Mann-Kendall (MK)、改进的 Mann-Kendall (mM-K) 和线性回归分析 (LRA) 方法进行比较。在印度几乎所有的分区中都发现了季节性和年降雨量的显着趋势。季风和年降雨量在半岛和印度西北部的大多数分区显示出增加趋势,而在该国东北部中部观察到减少趋势。该国大部分地区的冬季降雨量呈下降趋势。MK/mM-K 和 LRA 的结果与 ITA 检测到的趋势一致。然而,ITA 在检测传统 MK/mM-K 和 LRA 测试遗漏的隐藏趋势方面更为敏感。本研究将为评估和主动缓解气候变化对水资源的影响,管理气候变率风险提供科学参考。

更新日期:2021-05-28
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