Following the detection of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Western Australia in early 2020 and the lack of government response action, we estimate the impact it is likely to have on the state’s agriculture. A bioeconomic model is used to estimate cost and revenue implications for broadacre cropping and horticulture industries. We assume permanent S. frugiperda populations are likely to establish in areas of the state’s north and mid-west over the next decade, and other regions may experience sporadic outbreaks over single seasons. Over 0.8 million hectares of host crops could be permanently affected, while sporadic outbreaks may affect a further 150,000 hectares. Expressed in Australian dollars (A$), S. frugiperda is likely to add a A$14.2–39.3 million burden to agricultural producers per annum by year 10 of the outbreak. Approximately 55% of these damage costs are attributable to yield loss and 45% to increased variable production costs.

中文翻译：

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秋粘虫（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）会给西澳大利亚农业造成什么损失？

在 2020 年初在西澳大利亚发现秋季粘虫草地贪夜蛾（JE Smith，鳞翅目：夜蛾科）以及政府缺乏应对行动之后，我们估计它可能对该州的农业产生影响。生物经济模型用于估计对大面积种植和园艺行业的成本和收入影响。我们假设在未来十年内，该州北部和中西部地区可能会出现永久性的 S. frugiperda 种群，而其他地区可能会在单个季节内出现零星爆发。超过 80 万公顷的寄主作物可能会受到永久性影响，而零星的爆发可能会影响另外 150,000 公顷。以澳元 (A$) 表示，S. frugiperda 可能会增加 14.2-39 澳元。到爆发的第 10 年，每年给农业生产者带来 300 万的负担。这些损坏成本中约有 55% 可归因于产量损失，45% 可归因于可变生产成本的增加。