Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.

使用新可用的网格年作物产量面板数据集，结合动态计量经济学模型，区分农民对天气冲击的短期和长期反应并考虑适应，我们调查了气候对全球作物产量的风险变暖。在广阔的空间领域，我们观察到农民的长期调整对短期影响只有轻微的缓和。在没有超出历史追求的额外适应幅度的情况下，使用 21 个气候模型模拟的集合构建的预测表明，到本世纪中叶，气候变化可能使全球作物产量减少 3-12%，到世纪末减少 11-25% ，在剧烈变暖的情况下。