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Four distinct Northeast US heat wave circulation patterns and associated mechanisms, trends, and electric usage
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00186-7
Laurie Agel , Mathew Barlow , Christopher Skinner , Frank Colby , Judah Cohen

Northeastern US heat waves have usually been considered in terms of a single circulation pattern, the high-pressure circulation typical of most heat waves occurring in other parts of the world. However, k-means clustering analysis from 1980–2018 shows there are four distinct patterns of Northeast heat wave daily circulation, each of which has its own seasonality, heat-producing mechanisms (associated moisture, subsidence, and temperature advection), and impact on electricity demand. Monthly analysis shows statistically-significant positive trends occur in late summer for two of the patterns and early summer for a third pattern, while the fourth pattern shows a statistically significant negative trend in early summer. These results demonstrate that heat waves in a particular geographic area can be initiated and maintained by a variety of mechanisms, resulting in heat wave types with distinct impacts and potential links to climate change, and that pattern analysis is an effective tool to distinguish these differences.



中文翻译:

美国东北部四种不同的热浪循环模式以及相关的机理,趋势和用电量

美国东北部的热浪通常被认为是一种单一的循环方式,这种高压循环是大多数世界其他地区发生的热浪的典型特征。然而,1980-2018年的k均值聚类分析显示东北热浪日循环有四种不同的模式,每种模式都有其自身的季节性,产热机制(相关的水分,沉降和温度对流)以及对温度的影响。电力需求。每月分析显示,两种模式在夏末出现了统计学上显着的正趋势,而第三种模式则在初夏出现了,而第四种模式在初夏出现了统计上显着的负趋势。这些结果表明,可以通过多种机制来启动和维持特定地理区域中的热波,

更新日期:2021-05-27
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