Lake Michigan rose to record high water levels in the 2010s; during this time, some coastal sites experienced habitat loss rates an order of magnitude higher than during previous high water periods throughout the 20th century. The high magnitude and rapid rate of rise observed during the 2012–2020 period in combination with a slight increase in the percentage of storm waves likely accelerated habitat loss rates beyond levels that were observed over the past century. Our data suggest that rapid and relatively large changes from low water levels to high water levels are the main driver of large erosional losses, as the coastal system shifts abruptly from one water-level regime to another. One likely impact of climate change on Great Lakes’ water level is an increase in the variability of fluctuations, thus more scenarios of abrupt and rapid water-level rise and associated habitat loss are expected in the future. We propose that the unprecedented habitat loss observed during the 2012–2020 timeframe will become the new normal in the coming century as enhanced variability in water levels facilitates sustained coastal land loss.

密歇根湖在 2010 年代升至创纪录的高水位；在此期间，一些沿海地区的栖息地丧失率比整个 20 世纪以前的高水位时期高出一个数量级。2012 年至 2020 年期间观察到的高强度和快速上升速度，加上风暴浪百分比的小幅增加，可能加速了栖息地丧失速度，超过了过去一个世纪观察到的水平。我们的数据表明，从低水位到高水位的快速且相对较大的变化是造成大量侵蚀损失的主要驱动因素，因为沿海系统从一种水位状况突然转变为另一种水位状况。气候变化对五大湖水位的一种可能影响是波动的可变性增加，因此，预计未来会出现更多突然和快速的水位上升以及相关的栖息地丧失的情况。我们建议，2012-2020 年期间观察到的前所未有的栖息地丧失将成为下个世纪的新常态，因为水位变化的加剧促进了沿海土地的持续流失。