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Interdependencies between regulatory capital, credit extension and economic growth
Journal of Economics and Business ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-27 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2021.106010
Robert Stewart , Murshed Chowdhury , Vaalmikki Arjoon

Since the introduction of the third Basel Accord (Basel III) in 2011, there have been debatable outcomes regarding the effects of increased regulatory capital on economic growth. We aim to add clarity to some of these debates by investigating one primary channel through which regulatory capital may affect economic growth, viz. credit extension to the private sector. We capture credit extension through four dimensions, namely: bank credit to the private sector, bank credit to households, bank credit to firms, and bank credit-to-deposit ratio. The latter we use as a metric to capture funding (in)stability. We use a panel vector autoregression (pVAR) model on a sample of 124 countries, across the period 1998–2015 and analyse impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions to investigate the interdependence of regulatory capital, credit extension, and GDP growth. Our results indicate that regulatory capital reduces unstable credit (credit that may induce economic distress) while improving GDP growth. Simultaneously, such unstable credit shows negative effects on GDP growth. From this evidence, we infer that regulatory capital can induce funding stability within banking sectors, which can encourage sustainable economic growth. This provides strong support for the Basel III changes which have put more emphasis on Tier 1 capital and stable funding.



中文翻译:

监管资本、信贷扩张和经济增长之间的相互依存关系

自 2011 年第三次巴塞尔协议(Basel III)出台以来,监管资本增加对经济增长的影响一直存在争议。我们的目标是通过调查监管资本可能影响经济增长的一个主要渠道,使其中一些辩论更加清晰,即。向私营部门提供信贷。我们通过四个维度来捕捉信贷扩张,即:银行对私营部门的信贷、银行对家庭的信贷、银行对企业的信贷和银行贷存比。后者我们用作衡量资金(不)稳定性的指标。我们对 124 个国家的样本使用面板向量自回归 (pVAR) 模型,跨越 1998-2015 年,分析脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解,以研究监管资本的相互依赖性,信贷扩张和 GDP 增长。我们的结果表明,监管资本减少了不稳定的信贷(可能导致经济困境的信贷),同时提高了 GDP 增长。同时,这种不稳定的信贷对GDP增长产生负面影响。根据这一证据,我们推断监管资本可以促进银行业内部的融资稳定,从而鼓励可持续的经济增长。这为更加强调一级资本和稳定资金的巴塞尔协议 III 的变化提供了强有力的支持。我们推断,监管资本可以促进银行业内的资金稳定,从而鼓励可持续的经济增长。这为更加强调一级资本和稳定资金的巴塞尔协议 III 的变化提供了强有力的支持。我们推断,监管资本可以促进银行业内的资金稳定,从而鼓励可持续的经济增长。这为更加强调一级资本和稳定资金的巴塞尔协议 III 的变化提供了强有力的支持。

更新日期:2021-05-27
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