This paper investigates the information content of the futures option markets trading activities in determining commodity futures returns. Our findings suggest that position changes in the commodity futures option markets provide incremental predictive power for commodity futures returns in addition to the effects of commodity futures markets position changes. Particularly, for both commercial traders and noncommercial traders, options position changes impact the futures price in the same direction as futures position changes. Furthermore, the nonmomentum of position changes of options market contributes overwhelmingly relative to the idiosyncratic risk and hedging pressure in the case of noncommercial trading.

中文翻译：

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商品期货期权市场交易如何影响商品期货价格

本文考察了期货期权市场交易活动在决定商品期货收益方面的信息含量。我们的研究结果表明，除了商品期货市场头寸变化的影响之外，商品期货期权市场的头寸变化还为商品期货回报提供了增量预测能力。特别是，对于商业交易者和非商业交易者，期权头寸变化对期货价格的影响与期货头寸变化的方向相同。此外，相对于非商业交易的特殊风险和对冲压力，期权市场的非动量头寸变化具有压倒性的作用。