We study the demographic and economic correlates of the 1918 influenza or “Spanish flu” that killed an estimated 6% of South Africa's population. While the pandemic has received some attention in South African historiography and from social scientists in other contexts, little is known about its long-term impact on the country. Bringing together data from a range of new sources, including population and agricultural censuses, household surveys, and the voters’ rolls, we provide analyses that show, first, the factors that (do and do not) predict flu mortality across South Africa's magisterial districts, and, second, suggest some important consequences of the flu. Our results reveal a large but short-lived demographic shock, and detectable, if small scale, long-term economic consequences.

中文翻译：

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1918 年南非流感的相关性和后果

我们研究了 1918 年流感或“西班牙流感”的人口统计学和经济相关性，这种流感导致南非估计 6% 的人口死亡。虽然这种流行病在南非的历史学和其他背景下的社会科学家受到了一些关注，但对其对该国的长期影响知之甚少。汇集来自一系列新来源的数据，包括人口和农业普查、住户调查和选民名册，我们提供的分析显示，首先，哪些因素（可以和不可以）预测南非各行政区的流感死亡率，其次，提出流感的一些重要后果。我们的结果揭示了一个巨大但短暂的人口冲击，以及可检测到的（即使是小规模的）长期经济后果。