Climate change impacts on agricultural production will shape the challenges of reaching food security and reducing poverty across households in the future. Existing literature lacks analysis of these impacts on different household groups under consideration of changing socio-economic developments. Here, we analyze how crop yield shifts induced by climate change will affect different household types in three low- and lower-middle-income countries, namely Vietnam, Ethiopia and Bolivia. The long-run analysis is based on a recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. We first construct a baseline scenario projecting global socio-economic developments up to 2050. From there, we implement business-as-usual climate change shocks on crop yields. In the baseline, all households benefit from welfare increases over time. Adding climate change induced yield changes reveals impacts different in size and direction depending on the level of the households’ income and on the share of income generated in agriculture. We find that the composition of the factor income and the land ownership are of large importance for the vulnerability of households to climate change, since the loss for non-agricultural households is highest in absolute terms. The complementary comparative static analysis shows smaller absolute and relative effects for most households as the differentiated factor income growth over time is not considered, which makes household types more or less vulnerable. A sensitivity analysis varying the severity of climate change impacts on yields confirms that more negative yield shifts exacerbate the situation (especially) of the most vulnerable households. Furthermore, it underlines that yield shocks on staple crops are of major importance for the welfare effect. Our findings reveal the need for differentiated interventions to mitigate consequences especially for the most vulnerable households.

气候变化对农业生产的影响将影响未来实现粮食安全和减少家庭贫困的挑战。考虑到不断变化的社会经济发展，现有文献缺乏对这些对不同家庭群体的影响的分析。在这里，我们分析了气候变化引起的作物产量变化将如何影响三个低收入和中低收入国家，即越南、埃塞俄比亚和玻利维亚的不同家庭类型。长期分析基于递归动态可计算一般均衡模型。我们首先构建了一个基线情景，预测到 2050 年的全球社会经济发展。从那里，我们对作物产量实施一切照旧的气候变化冲击。在基线中，随着时间的推移，所有家庭都受益于福利的增加。加上气候变化引起的产量变化，揭示了不同程度和方向的影响，这取决于家庭收入水平和农业收入份额。我们发现要素收入和土地所有权的构成对于家庭对气候变化的脆弱性非常重要，因为非农业家庭的损失绝对值最高。补充比较静态分析显示，由于未考虑随时间推移的差异化要素收入增长，因此对大多数家庭的绝对和相对影响较小，这使家庭类型或多或少变得脆弱。改变气候变化对产量影响的严重程度的敏感性分析证实，更多的负产量变化会加剧（尤其是）最脆弱家庭的情况。此外，它还强调了主要作物的产量冲击对福利效应至关重要。我们的研究结果表明，需要采取差异化干预措施来减轻后果，尤其是对最脆弱的家庭而言。