Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical, political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article, I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates. Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable, matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in explaining the variation in refugee flows.

为什么有些国家比其他国家收容更多的难民？先前的研究集中在地理，政治和经济决定因素的作用上，很少关注内战动态。在本文中，我研究了东道国对反叛团体的支持如何影响其所容纳的难民人数。支持叛乱的国家比其他国家收容更多的难民，因为容纳难民可以继续提供这种支持，并帮助叛乱团体进行武装斗争。通过接待人们，国家可以提供一个庇护所，叛乱分子可以从该庇护所从事一些叛乱活动。叛乱团体可以利用这些营地进行招募，培训，并从诸如医疗保健等主要服务中受益。此外，当叛乱分子在东道国开展活动时，这些国家可能会监视，影响，甚至指导叛乱组织的策略。对1968年至2011年之间难民流动的分析表明，支持反叛团体的国家接待的难民人数是其他难民人数的两倍。结果对于各种模型规格，两个主要解释变量的来源，匹配分析和其他检查都是可靠的。本文的研究结果强调了冲突动态在解释难民流量变化中的重要性。