Gordon Conway postulated that in comparison to traditional agroecosystems, crop yields from modern agroecosystems are: (1) higher; (2) less sustainable; and (3) more variable, particularly in the early adoption stages. The existing literature predates more recent developments and does not employ long-term time series data to identify time phases using any econometric tests for structural breaks. This paper fills this gap by investigating the applicability of Conway’s hypotheses to Bangladeshi rice yields over sixty years examining trends, their sustainability, and their variability. We find mixed support for Conway’s hypotheses. Rice yields rose substantially following the Green Revolution. Overall, higher yields have been sustained. However, they have now virtually plateaued, and various factors (including environmental and ecological) have increased the risk of these yields becoming unsustainable. Until recently, absolute variations in Bangladesh’s rice yields were found to be higher than before the Green Revolution. This supports Conway’s third hypothesis. However, the relative variability of Bangladesh’s rice yields has consistently fallen since the Green Revolution. We highlight the trio of general factors determining rice yields and underscored the need for holistic analysis. Non-economists often overlook economic factors while economists often do not pay adequate attention to eco-environmental factors.

Gordon Conway 假设，与传统农业生态系统相比，现代农业生态系统的作物产量：（1）更高；（2）可持续性差；(3) 变数更大，尤其是在早期采用阶段。现有文献早于最近的发展，并且没有使用长期时间序列数据来识别时间阶段，使用任何计量经济学测试来确定结构断裂。本文通过调查 Conway 的假设在 60 多年来对孟加拉国水稻产量的适用性、趋势、可持续性和可变性来填补这一空白。我们发现对 Conway 的假设的支持不一。绿色革命后水稻产量大幅上升。总体而言，较高的收益率得以维持。然而，他们现在几乎已经停滞不前，各种因素（包括环境和生态）增加了这些产量变得不可持续的风险。直到最近，人们发现孟加拉国大米产量的绝对变化高于绿色革命之前。这支持了康威的第三个假设。然而，自绿色革命以来，孟加拉国水稻产量的相对变异性一直在下降。我们强调了决定水稻产量的三个一般因素，并强调了进行整体分析的必要性。非经济学家往往忽视经济因素，而经济学家往往对生态环境因素不够重视。然而，自绿色革命以来，孟加拉国水稻产量的相对变异性一直在下降。我们强调了决定水稻产量的三个一般因素，并强调了进行整体分析的必要性。非经济学家往往忽视经济因素，而经济学家往往对生态环境因素不够重视。然而，自绿色革命以来，孟加拉国水稻产量的相对变异性一直在下降。我们强调了决定水稻产量的三个一般因素，并强调了进行整体分析的必要性。非经济学家往往忽视经济因素，而经济学家往往对生态环境因素不够重视。