The focus of archaeologists on reconstructing exchange and communication networks in the past resulted in the enormous improvement of methods for analyzing material flows and detecting trade routes. However, our understanding of the determinants of trade patterns over time and space is still limited. To help tackle this issue, we study through regression analysis the rich economic and institutional experience of Bronze Age Greater Mesopotamia. Our testable predictions originate from three main economic theories of trade expansion. First, because of trade costs, mutually beneficial exchanges are discouraged by distance and encouraged by the relative size of markets. Second, trade expands when more suitable farming conditions in neighboring polities allow consumption risk-sharing. Finally, trade develops when interlocking exchange circuits ease the canalization of goods from the outside by providing secure routes, a more certain resolution of legal disputes and credit provision. Ordinary Least Squares—OLS—estimates based on data on 44 major Mesopotamian polities observed for each half-century between 3050 and 1750 BCE are consistent with these predictions. Our approach provides a robust theory-based empirical strategy for integrating archaeological, environmental, and historical data and calls for a tighter interdisciplinary cooperation.

过去，考古学家将重点放在重建交换和通讯网络上，从而极大地改善了用于分析物质流和检测贸易路线的方法。但是，我们对随时间和空间的贸易模式决定因素的理解仍然有限。为了帮助解决这个问题，我们通过回归分析研究了青铜时代大美索不达米亚的丰富经济和制度经验。我们可检验的预测来自贸易扩张的三种主要经济理论。首先，由于贸易成本的缘故，互惠互利的交流受到阻碍，市场的相对规模也加剧了互助交流。其次，当邻近政体的更适合的农业条件允许消费风险分担时，贸易就会扩大。最后，当互锁的交换电路通过提供安全的路线，更确定的法律纠纷和信贷提供来缓解来自外部的货物渠化时，贸易就发展了。普通最小二乘（OLS）基于对公元前3050年至1750年之间每半个世纪观察到的44个主要的美索不达米亚政体的数据进行的估计与这些预测是一致的。我们的方法为整合考古，环境和历史数据提供了可靠的基于理论的经验策略，并要求更紧密的跨学科合作。普通最小二乘（OLS）基于对公元前3050年至1750年之间每半个世纪观察到的44个主要的美索不达米亚政体的数据进行的估计与这些预测是一致的。我们的方法为整合考古，环境和历史数据提供了可靠的基于理论的经验策略，并要求更紧密的跨学科合作。普通最小二乘（OLS）基于对公元前3050年至1750年之间每半个世纪观察到的44个主要的美索不达米亚政体的数据进行的估计与这些预测是一致的。我们的方法为整合考古，环境和历史数据提供了可靠的基于理论的经验策略，并要求更紧密的跨学科合作。