The impacts of natural disasters on inbound tourism have recently received growing attention due to the increased frequency of natural disasters. Previous literature has reached different conclusions on the effects of disaster severity and frequency, and few studies have considered both the severity and frequency of natural disasters in the same statistical model. The synergistic effect of these two attributes of natural disasters is unrevealed herein. To enhance the current knowledge, this paper assesses the impacts of both the severity and frequency of natural disasters on the inbound tourist flows of destination countries from an annual perspective. We integrate 258,401 bilateral tourist movements and 9892 natural disasters in 177 countries between 1995 and 2018 and analyze the data using a panel regression. The results show that disaster severity deters tourists from visiting destinations, but disaster frequency indicates a positive effect. We also identify the positive moderating effect of disaster frequency.

由于自然灾害频发，自然灾害对入境旅游的影响最近受到越来越多的关注。先前的文献对灾难的严重性和发生频率的影响得出了不同的结论，很少有研究在同一统计模型中同时考虑自然灾害的严重性和发生频率。在此没有揭示自然灾害的这两个属性的协同效应。为了增强当前的知识，本文从年度角度评估了自然灾害的严重程度和频率对目的地国家入境游客流量的影响。我们在1995年至2018年期间对177个国家/地区的258,401次双边旅游活动和9892次自然灾害进行了整合，并使用面板回归分析了数据。结果表明，灾害严重程度阻止了游客前往目的地，但灾害频率表明产生了积极影响。我们还确定了灾难频率的积极调节作用。