We combine the strengths of structural models and natural experiments in an analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands. We first estimate structural discrete-choice models for labour supply. Next, we simulate key past reforms and compare the predictions of the structural model with the outcomes of quasi-experimental studies. The structural model predicts the treatment effects well. The structural model then allows us to conduct counterfactual policy analysis. Policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labour supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.

我们结合了结构模型和自然实验的优势，分析了荷兰的税收福利改革。我们首先估计劳动力供应的结构离散选择模型。接下来，我们模拟过去的关键改革，并将结构模型的预测与准实验研究的结果进行比较。结构模型很好地预测了治疗效果。然后，结构模型允许我们进行反事实政策分析。针对有年幼子女的职业母亲的政策产生了最大的劳动力供应反应，但几乎没有产生额外的政府收入。引入统一税、基本收入或联合征税是无效的。