Several authors have argued that non-extreme probabilities used in special sciences such as chemistry and biology can be objective chances, even if the true microphysical description of the world is deterministic. This article examines an influential version of this argument and shows that it depends on a particular methodology for defining the relationship between coarse-grained and fine-grained events. An alternative methodology for coarse-graining is proposed. This alternative methodology blocks this argument for the existence of emergent chances, and makes better sense of two well-known subjects of philosophical discussion: the Miners Puzzle and Simpson’s Paradox.

一些作者认为，即使对世界的真实微观描述是确定性的，在特殊科学（例如化学和生物学）中使用的非极端概率也可能是客观机会。本文研究了该论点的有影响力的版本，并表明它依赖于一种特定的方法来定义粗粒度和细粒度事件之间的关系。提出了一种粗粒度的替代方法。这种可供选择的方法论阻止了关于出现机会的论点，并更好地理解了两个著名的哲学讨论主题：《矿工之谜》和《辛普森悖论》。