Using a panel of democracies from 1987 to 2016, this study examines the effect of a defective democracy on the political budget cycle. To separate defective democracies from embedded democracies, we apply cluster analysis to the central elements of democracy. We find that the political budget cycle is significant only in defective democracies. Our finding indicates that the electoral cycle can persist even though democracies become old and economies become advanced. We also find that, of the central elements of democracy, weak rule of law and an ineffective government mainly explain the political budget cycle in defective democracies.

中文翻译：

---

有缺陷的民主和政治预算周期

本研究使用 1987 年至 2016 年的民主国家小组，检验有缺陷的民主对政治预算周期的影响。为了将有缺陷的民主与嵌入式民主区分开来，我们将聚类分析应用于民主的核心要素。我们发现政治预算周期仅在有缺陷的民主国家中才有意义。我们的发现表明，即使民主国家变老、经济发达，选举周期仍会持续。我们还发现，在民主的核心要素中，法治薄弱和政府效率低下主要解释了有缺陷的民主国家的政治预算周期。