Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2021.101724 Oliver Merz , Dr. Raphael Flepp , Prof. Dr. Egon Franck
This paper examines whether individuals’ decision making is affected by fast-sounding horse names in a betting exchange market environment. In horse racing, the name of a horse does not depend on the horse's performance and is thus uninformative. If positive affect towards fast-sounding horse names is present, we expect less accurate prices, i.e., winning probabilities, and lower returns due to the increased demand for these bets. Using over 3 million horse bets, we find evidence that the winning probabilities of bets on horses with fast-sounding names are overstated, which impairs the prediction accuracy of such bets. This finding implies that prices in betting exchange markets are distorted by incorporating affective, misleading information from a horse's fast-sounding name. Consequently, this bias translates into significantly lower betting returns for horses with names classified as fast-sounding compared to the returns for all other horses.
中文翻译:
Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail:人们是否受到无信息赛马名称的影响?
本文研究了在博彩交易市场环境中,个人的决策是否受到快速响亮的马名的影响。在赛马中,马的名字不取决于马的表现,因此是无信息的。如果出现对响亮的马名的积极影响,我们预计价格会不太准确,即获胜概率,以及由于对这些赌注的需求增加而导致的较低回报。使用超过 300 万个马匹赌注,我们发现有证据表明赌注名字响亮的马匹的获胜概率被夸大了,这削弱了此类赌注的预测准确性。这一发现意味着博彩交易市场中的价格被纳入来自马的快速名字中的情感、误导性信息而扭曲。最后,