Existing literature on the link between government expenditure and economic growth shows mixed results. This paper, while analysing the impact of government expenditure on economic growth using the ARDL framework, also investigates whether the difference in data types is one of the reasons for the conflicting findings reported in the literature about Wagner’s law and Keynesian hypothesis. We use Sri Lanka as a case study for this analysis and use three different forms of model specifications at the aggregate and disaggregated (sectoral) levels. Results indicate that both Wagner’s and Keynesian’s propositions are supported by the Sri Lankan data in the long-run for all three model specifications and the results are inconclusive in the short-run. This suggests that Wagner’s law and Keynesian hypothesis are sensitive to the data type used and the results could be different depending on whether the analysis is made in the short-run or long-run. Capital and recurrent expenditures are found to have a positive effect on economic growth in the short-run as well as long-run. At the disaggregated level, expenditure on agriculture and health positively impact economic growth in the long-run, while welfare expenditure has a negative effect. These findings provide important insights for policymakers to consider when allocating sectoral level expenditure budget. This study also provides insights on allocating government expenditure towards achieving United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals which countries across the globe are aiming to achieve by 2030.

关于政府支出与经济增长之间联系的现有文献显示了不同的结果。本文在使用 ARDL 框架分析政府支出对经济增长的影响的同时，还调查了数据类型的差异是否是导致文献中关于瓦格纳定律和凯恩斯假设的研究结果相互矛盾的原因之一。我们使用斯里兰卡作为本次分析的案例研究，并在汇总和分解（部门）层面使用三种不同形式的模型规范。结果表明，瓦格纳和凯恩斯主义的命题都得到了斯里兰卡所有三个模型规范的长期数据的支持，结果在短期内是不确定的。这表明瓦格纳定律和凯恩斯假设对所使用的数据类型很敏感，根据分析是在短期还是长期进行，结果可能会有所不同。研究发现，资本支出和经常性支出对短期和长期的经济增长都有积极影响。在分解层次上，农业和卫生支出从长远来看对经济增长有积极影响，而福利支出则有负面影响。这些发现为决策者在分配部门级支出预算时考虑提供了重要的见解。这项研究还提供了有关分配政府支出以实现全球各国力争到 2030 年实现的联合国可持续发展目标的见解。