ABSTRACT

Through Alignment, Attribution and intelligent Aggregation, the three core principles forming the basis of Agency-Wide Performance Measurement Systems, performance measurement systems that use impact assessments can make serious contribution to both accountability and lesson-learning. In this paper, we argue that Agencies would benefit by adding a fourth principle, namely ‘externally-valid extrapolation’, since Agencies should be concerned about obtaining rigorous impacts estimates that can be conducive to aggregate impact predictions. Extrapolation essentially means determining a metric of aggregate development effectiveness. Ensuring externally valid extrapolation requires that this metric is estimated based on a sufficiently large set of internally valid studies accompanied by an impact assessment research programme conceived within a framework that maximises external validity at portfolio level. We show how as part of the first impact assessment initiative at IFAD, which dates back to 2012, a methodology was devised to measure and project aggregate development effectiveness at portfolio level.

摘要

通过对齐、归因和智能聚合，构成全机构绩效衡量系统基础的三个核心原则，使用影响评估的绩效衡量系统可以对问责制和经验教训做出重大贡献。在本文中，我们认为机构会受益于添加第四个原则，即“外部有效外推法”'，因为机构应该关注获得有助于总体影响预测的严格影响估计。推断本质上意味着确定总体发展有效性的指标。确保外部有效的外推需要根据足够多的内部有效研究来估计该指标，并辅以在最大化投资组合级别外部有效性的框架内构思的影响评估研究计划。我们展示了作为 2012 年农发基金第一个影响评估计划的一部分，如何设计一种方法来衡量和预测投资组合层面的总体发展有效性。