Through an analysis of over 4,000 multinational firms with foreign exchange (FX) exposures in 44 countries over a 30-year period to 2017, we provide cross-country evidence that greater firm-level unexpected FX volatility leads to significantly lower capital expenditures. The effect is stronger for countries with higher economic openness and for firms that do not use currency derivatives to hedge. We empirically test the implications of two potential driving mechanisms: real options and precautionary savings. Our findings are consistent with both explanations. Two groups of historical events in the FX markets strengthen the identification of our results.

通过对截至 2017 年的 30 年间在 44 个国家/地区拥有外汇 (FX) 敞口的 4,000 多家跨国公司的分析，我们提供了跨国证据，表明更大的公司层面的意外外汇波动会导致资本支出显着降低。对于经济开放程度较高的国家和不使用货币衍生品进行对冲的公司，这种影响更大。我们凭经验测试了两种潜在驱动机制的影响：实物期权和预防性储蓄。我们的发现与这两种解释一致。外汇市场中的两组历史事件加强了我们对结果的识别。