The Baltic Sea is a heavily impacted ecosystem with multiple pressures acting simultaneously. In order to quantify ecosystem impacts of integrated climate change and eutrophication pressures under constant high fishing pressure, and to support decision-making and policies in generating environmental and economic sustainable systems, the Baltic Atlantis holistic and mechanistic ecosystem model was applied. The overall aim was to run scenarios of separate and integrated impacts of climate and riverine nutrient load changes, taking into account the interactions of the full food web in the entire Baltic Sea. This was done to identify which of those two pressures will likely dominate the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem, and to test effects of different riverine nutrient forcing sources as well as the Baltic Atlantis functions in relation to hydrographic spawning thresholds. By integrating the hydrography, the biology covering all trophic levels of the food web, and multiple pressures, i.e. eutrophication, climate change and fishery, we were able to evaluate relative impacts of 3 climate scenarios and 3 nutrient load scenarios, using two sources of nutrient forcing and predict likely trends in ecosystem effects. With focus on major fish stocks, our model, with its assumptions, indicated that nutrient loads are the main driver of the changes in the ecosystem as long as the hydrographic thresholds for spawning are not reached. If the thresholds are reached for the Baltic cod, climate change impact will become most important. Furthermore, higher nutrient loads resulted in cod decrease, and increase in sprat and herring. This effect is amplified by stronger climate change. Overall, it is of crucial importance for the future of the Baltic Sea fisheries and stocks that potential impacts are considered both separate and integrated in a dynamic ecosystem-based management approach.

波罗的海是一个受到严重影响的生态系统，同时具有多种压力。为了量化在持续高捕捞压力下综合气候变化和富营养化压力对生态系统的影响，并支持决策和制定环境和经济可持续系统的政策，我们采用了波罗的海亚特兰蒂斯整体和机械生态系统模型。总体目标是考虑到整个波罗的海中整个食物网的相互作用，对气候和河流养分负荷变化的影响进行单独综合分析。这样做是为了确定这两个压力中的哪一个将主导波罗的海生态系统的未来，并测试与河流产卵阈值相关的不同河流养分强迫源以及波罗的海亚特兰提斯功能的影响。通过整合水文学，涵盖食物网所有营养水平的生物学以及多种压力（即富营养化，气候变化和渔业），我们能够使用两种营养素来评估3种气候情景和3种养分负荷情景的相对影响强迫和预测生态系统影响的可能趋势。着眼于主要鱼类种群，我们的模型及其假设表明，只要没有达到产卵的水文阈值，养分负荷便是生态系统变化的主要驱动力。如果达到波罗的海鳕的阈值，气候变化的影响将变得最重要。此外，较高的营养负荷导致鳕鱼减少，而鲱鱼和鲱鱼增加。气候变化加剧会加剧这种影响。总体而言，对于潜在的影响，无论是单独的还是综合考虑在基于生态系统的动态管理方法中，对于波罗的海渔业和种群的未来至关重要。