The impact of demand-side factors and rapid structural changes have largely been ignored in explaining the economic growth of Vietnam. This paper employs the multisectoral balance-of-payments constrained economic growth model to capture the influence of structural changes on the exports and economic growth of Vietnam over the period 1997–2016. Based on the estimates for the sectoral income elasticities of demand for exports and imports obtained from autoregressive distributed lag models, this paper argues that it is not relative prices but income that has played a significant role in Vietnam’s economic growth, the income elasticities of demand for exports have grown faster than those of demand for imports, and the weight of exports has significantly moved from primary to high-technology products.

JEL Classification: E12, F43, O53

在解释越南的经济增长时，很大程度上忽略了需求方因素和结构快速变化的影响。本文采用国际收支约束的多部门经济增长模型来捕捉结构性变化对越南在1997-2016年期间出口和经济增长的影响。根据从自回归分布滞后模型获得的进出口需求的部门收入弹性估算，本文认为，不是相对价格而是收入在越南的经济增长中发挥了重要作用的是需求的收入弹性。出口的增长快于进口需求的增长，出口的比重已从初级产品转移到高科技产品。

JEL分类：E12，F43，O53