Arboviral diseases are a theme of high interest in the field of public and collective health worldwide. Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya, in particular, have shown significant expansion in terms of morbidity and mortality in different portions of the ecumene. These diseases are of great interest in geographic studies due to the characteristics of their vector (Aedes aegypti), adapted to the environmental and unequal context of the urbanization process. Given this background, this study assesses the relationship between global climate change and the risk of arboviral diseases for the state of Rio de Janeiro. To this end, the characteristics of future climate susceptibility to vector proliferation in the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) were assessed using two models: Eta HadGEM2-ES and Eta MIROC5, as well as the vulnerability conditions that favor the spread of arboviruses. The results indicate that the tendency of thermal and hygrometric elevation, in association with vulnerability, may have repercussions on the intensification and spatial expansion of the risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro, since there is a spatial and temporal expansion of the optimal environmental conditions for the development of the vector.

虫媒病毒疾病是全球公共和集体卫生领域的高度关注主题。特别是登革热，寨卡和基孔肯雅热，在紫杉烯的不同部位的发病率和死亡率方面已显示出显着的增长。这些疾病由于其媒介特征而在地理研究中引起了极大的兴趣（埃及伊蚊）），以适应城市化进程中的环境和不平等环境。在这种背景下，本研究评估了全球气候变化与里约热内卢州树木病毒性疾病风险之间的关系。为此，使用两种模型评估了RCP 4.5和8.5（2011-2040和2041-2070）情景中未来气候对媒介扩散的易感性特征：Eta HadGEM2-ES和Eta MIROC5，以及脆弱性条件。支持虫媒病毒的传播。结果表明，热量和湿度升高的趋势与脆弱性有关，可能会对里约热内卢州的虫媒病毒疾病风险的加剧和空间扩展产生影响，