This article studies the impact of demographic change on experienced workers' relative wages and employment rates. We investigate empirical predictions from a framework of supply and demand for experience skill, using variation across U.S. local labor markets (LLMs) over the last decades and instrumenting experience skill supply by the LLMs' age structures a decade earlier. We find that aging substantially reduces experienced workers' relative wages and full-time employment rates, and also their labor market participation rates. Our results imply that the effect of demographic change on labor markets might be more severe than previously recognized, as it reaches beyond wages.

中文翻译：

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让自己变得稀缺：人口结构变化对有经验工人的相对工资和就业率的影响

本文研究人口变化对有经验的工人的相对工资和就业率的影响。我们使用过去几十年美国当地劳动力市场 (LLM) 的变化，并根据十年前 LLM 的年龄结构测量经验技能供应，从经验技能的供求框架中调查实证预测。我们发现老龄化大大降低了有经验的工人的相对工资和全职就业率，以及他们的劳动力市场参与率。我们的结果意味着人口变化对劳动力市场的影响可能比以前认识到的更严重，因为它超越了工资。