The last IPCC report highlights that, along the present century, sea level rise driven by climate change will exacerbate the flooding frequency in coastal areas. Among others, the Venice Lagoon is one of the most vulnerable because of the presence of worldly famous historical urban settlements. To face this, a mobile flap gate system (Mo.S.E.) is nearly completed and has already raised across the lagoon inlets under testing phase to protect Venice from flooding. However, relative sea level rise and the wind setup effect during the closure of the lagoon, pose relevant management challenges such as timing and frequency to operate the barriers. In the present work, we first highlight some issues related to the management protocol currently adopted. We suggest a new strategy that optimizes the gate operation by identifying the shortest duration of closure that simultaneously prevents the flooding of all urban settlements within the lagoon. The new strategy is then used to estimate the Mo.S.E. management considering the last 20-year-long tidal record, but also for investigating different scenarios of relative sea level rise. The analysis we propose proves that the enhanced wind setup constraint will lead the Mo.S.E. system to fail in controlling all flood events starting from a relative sea level rise of +0.40 m. In addition, wind setup will increasingly often produce long and repeated closures, requiring further measures to combine flood protection, port and industrial activities and the conservation of the lagoon ecosystem.

IPCC 上一份报告强调，在本世纪，气候变化导致的海平面上升将加剧沿海地区的洪水频率。其中，威尼斯泻湖是最脆弱的地区之一，因为它拥有世界著名的历史城市定居点。为解决这个问题，一个移动式翻板门系统 (Mo.SE) 即将完成，并且已经在测试阶段横跨泻湖入口升起，以保护威尼斯免受洪水侵袭。然而，在泻湖关闭期间，相对海平面上升和风力设置效应带来了相关的管理挑战，例如操作屏障的时间和频率。在目前的工作中，我们首先强调与当前采用的管理协议相关的一些问题。我们提出了一种新策略，通过确定最短的关闭时间来优化闸门操作，同时防止泻湖内所有城市住区的洪水泛滥。然后，考虑到过去 20 年的潮汐记录，新策略用于估计 Mo.SE 管理，但也用于调查相对海平面上升的不同情景。我们提出的分析证明，增强的风设置约束将导致 Mo.SE 系统无法控制从相对海平面上升 +0.40 m 开始的所有洪水事件。此外，风力设置将越来越频繁地导致长期和反复关闭，需要采取进一步措施将防洪、港口和工业活动以及泻湖生态系统的保护结合起来。