Fiscal procyclicality, meaning co-movement between government expenditure and macroeconomic fundamentals, is an important feature of business cycle dynamics for emerging and poor economies. I estimate a panel SVAR to investigate the reasons for fiscal procyclicality. The analysis sheds light on the role of external financial constraints in shaping fiscal policy. My findings suggest that the response of emerging governments to output fluctuations is similar to that of developed governments. However, emerging governments curtail spending in response to increases in the sovereign borrowing rate, which forces their consumption expenditure to act more procyclically. Using counterfactual analysis, I show that the key forces behind fiscal procyclicality are the sensitivity of government spending to international borrowing costs and the procyclical nature of these costs for emerging economies.

财政顺周期，即政府支出与宏观经济基本面之间的共同变动，是新兴经济体和贫困经济体商业周期动态的重要特征。我估计有一个SVAR小组来调查财政顺周期性的原因。分析揭示了外部财务约束在制定财政政策中的作用。我的发现表明，新兴政府对产出波动的反应与发达政府的反应相似。但是，新兴国家政府为了应对主权借贷利率的上涨而削减支出，这迫使其消费支出采取更顺周期的行动。使用反事实分析，