Abstract

This paper contributes to ongoing debates surrounding the impact of the Great Crash on change or continuity in fiscal policy assumptions in the IMF, and in doing so, foregrounds two variables that have been given short shrift in the existing literature: the multiple levels of economic ideas; and the dynamic, evolving, multi-phase nature of moments of political-economic failure. Drawing on this nuanced appreciation of the complexities and dimensions of moments of uncertainty, the central argument of this paper is that notwithstanding the beginnings of a potential gestalt flip during the most acute phase of the Great Crash, the IMF nevertheless remains a long way from jettisoning prior orthodoxies, despite some evidence of inter-paradigm borrowing in response to concerns of secular stagnation in advanced economies.

摘要

本文有助于围绕大崩盘对 IMF 财政政策假设的变化或连续性的影响的持续辩论，并在此过程中突出了现有文献中被忽视的两个变量：经济思想的多层次; 以及政治经济失败时刻的动态、演变和多阶段性质。基于对不确定性时刻的复杂性和维度的这种细致入微的认识，本文的中心论点是，尽管在大崩盘最严重的阶段开始了潜在的格式塔翻转，但 IMF 离放弃它还有很长的路要走先前的正统观念，尽管有一些证据表明为了应对发达经济体长期停滞的担忧而进行了跨范式借贷。