ABSTRACT: Humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae are undergoing a population increase after ca. 40 yr of a whaling ban. However, anthropogenic activities threaten their recovery in recolonized breeding habitats. Predictive habitat models are important tools that can help create effective conservation measures. Due to the spatially structured distribution of this species that depends on the presence of calves and the number of individuals, models must account for specific population variability that could refine management direction. We modeled potential breeding habitats of humpback whales considering group type variability. A total of 10 yr of data (3115 sighted humpback whales from 2010 to 2019) obtained from whale-watching surveys in the breeding area of northern Peru (4°S, Southeast Tropical Pacific) were used. Maximum entropy models were constructed to predict potential habitats for breeding humpback whales considering groups with and without calves. Depth and sea surface temperature were used as descriptors for modeling the potential habitat of humpback whale groups. Depth was the main explanatory variable for all models. The optimal potential habitat for groups with calves was located between 20 and 50 m depth. Groups without calves ranged more widely in habitat, from 20 to 100 m depth. The predictive character of these models shows segregated potential habitats of breeding humpback whales, which could help refine conservation actions. For example, limiting the number of whale-watching boats in nearshore waters when mother and calf pairs are present would reduce conflict, while restricting the use of gillnets in transitional neritic to oceanic waters is mandatory to mitigate entanglements.

中文翻译：

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座头鲸Megaptera novaeangliae繁殖生境的模拟与群体组成的关系

摘要：座头鲸Megaptera novaeangliae大约在‧年之后人口正在增加。禁止捕鲸40年。但是，人为活动威胁到它们在重新定殖的繁殖栖息地中的恢复。预测性栖息地模型是可以帮助制定有效保护措施的重要工具。由于该物种的空间结构分布取决于小牛的存在和个体数量，因此模型必须考虑特定的种群变异性，从而可以改善管理方向。考虑到群体类型的变异性，我们对座头鲸的潜在繁殖栖息地进行了建模。总共使用了10年的数据（2010年至2019年有3115头座头鲸），这些数据来自秘鲁北部繁殖地区（东南热带太平洋4°S）的观鲸调查。考虑到有和没有小牛的群体，构建了最大熵模型来预测繁殖座头鲸的潜在栖息地。深度和海面温度被用作描述座头鲸群潜在栖息地的描述子。深度是所有模型的主要解释变量。小牛群的最佳潜在栖息地位于20至50 m深度之间。没有小牛的群体栖息地范围更广，从20到100 m深度。这些模型的预测特征显示了繁殖座头鲸的潜在栖息地被隔离，这可以帮助完善保护措施。例如，在有母小牛对的情况下，限制近岸水域中的观鲸船数量将减少冲突，