The foundations of modern society are based on metals, yet their production is currently placing considerable strain on the Earth’s carrying capacity. Here, we develop a century-long scenario for six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel) harmonized with climate goals, with the goal of establishing science-based targets. We show that for the metal sector to contribute proportionally to emission reductions targets of the industrial sector, global in-use metal stocks need to converge from the current level of around 4 t/capita to about 7 t/capita. This will require today’s high-income countries to contract their per capita stock from current levels of about 12 t/capita to make room for growth in countries that are presently classified as middle- and low-income countries. In such a contraction and convergence scenario, primary production of all six metals will peak by 2030, and secondary production will surpass primary production by at least 2050. Consequently, cumulative ore requirements over the 21st century will remain below currently identified resources, implying that natural ore extraction will be limited by emissions budgets before existing resources can be depleted. Importantly, realizing such system changes will require urgent and concerted international efforts involving all countries, but specific responsibilities will vary according to income level. Namely, wealthy countries will need to use existing metal stocks more intensively and for longer periods to reduce stock replacement demand, while poor countries will need to develop long-lasting and material-efficient infrastructure to curtail stock expansion demand in the first half of the 21st century.

现代社会的基础是金属，但是金属的生产目前对地球的承载能力造成了很大的压力。在这里，我们针对与气候目标相协调的六种主要金属（铁，铝，铜，锌，铅和镍）开发了长达一个世纪的情景，其目标是建立基于科学的目标。我们表明，要使金属部门对工业部门的减排目标按比例做出贡献，全球在用金属库存需要从当前的约4吨/人均水平收敛到约7吨/人。这将要求当今的高收入国家将其人均存量从目前的约12吨/人的水平收缩，以便为目前被归类为中低收入国家的国家留出增长空间。在这种收缩和收敛的情况下，到2030年，所有六种金属的初级生产将达到顶峰，到2050年，二级生产将超过初级生产。因此，二十一世纪的累计矿石需求仍将低于目前确定的资源，这意味着天然矿石的开采将受到排放预算的限制。才能耗尽现有资源。重要的是，要实现这样的制度变革，将需要所有国家的紧急和协调一致的国际努力，但是具体责任将根据收入水平而变化。也就是说，富裕国家将需要更密集地使用现有的金属库存，并且需要更长的时间来减少库存替代需求，而贫穷国家将需要发展持久且具有材料效率的基础设施，以在21世纪上半叶减少库存的增长需求。世纪。