The productivity of permanent temperate cut grasslands is mainly driven by weather, soil characteristics, botanical composition and management. To adapt management to climate change, adjusting the cutting dates to reflect earlier onset of growth and expansion of the vegetation period is particularly important. Simulations of cut grassland productivity under climate change scenarios demands management settings to be dynamically derived from actual plant development rather than using static values derived from current management operations. This is even more important in the alpine region, where the predicted temperature increase is twice as high as compared to the global or Northern Hemispheric average.

For this purpose, we developed a dynamic management module that provides timing of cutting and manuring events when running the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. We derived the dynamic management rules from long-term harvest measurements and monitoring data collected at pre-alpine grassland sites located in S-Germany and belonging to the TERENO monitoring network. We applied the management module for simulations of two grassland sites covering the period 2011–2100 and driven by scenarios that reflect the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and evaluated yield developments of different management regimes.

The management module was able to represent timing of current management operations in high agreement with several years of field observations (r² > 0.88). Even more, the shift of the first cutting dates scaled to a +1 °C temperature increase simulated with the climate change scenarios (−9.1 to −17.1 days) compared well to the shift recorded by the German Weather Service (DWD) in the study area from 1991−2016 (−9.4 to −14.0 days). In total, the shift in cutting dates and expansion of the growing season resulted in 1−2 additional cuts per year until 2100. Thereby, climate change increased yields of up to 6 % and 15 % in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios with highest increases mainly found for dynamically adapted grassland management going along with increasing fertilization rates. In contrast, no or only minor yield increases were associated with simulations restricted to fertilization rates of 170 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ as required by national legislations. Our study also shows that yields significantly decreased in drought years, when soil moisture is limiting plant growth but due to comparable high precipitation and water holding capacity of soils, this was observed mainly in the RCP 8.5 scenario in the last decades of the century.

永久温带砍伐草地的生产力主要受天气、土壤特征、植物组成和管理驱动。为了使管理适应气候变化，调整切割日期以反映植被生长和扩张期的提前开始尤为重要。气候变化情景下割草生产力的模拟要求管理设置从实际植物开发中动态得出，而不是使用从当前管理操作中得出的静态值。这在高山地区更为重要，与全球或北半球平均水平相比，预测的温度升高幅度是其两倍。

为此，我们开发了一个动态管理模块，在运行生物地球化学模型 LandscapeDNDC 时提供切割和施肥事件的时间。我们从位于 S-Germany 并属于 TERENO 监测网络的前高山草地站点收集的长期收获测量和监测数据中得出动态管理规则。我们将管理模块应用于 2011-2100 年期间的两个草地站点的模拟，并由反映两个代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 的情景驱动，并评估了不同管理制度的产量发展。

管理模块能够表示当前管理操作的时间与几年的实地观察高度一致 (r² > 0.88)。更重要的是，与德国气象局 (DWD) 在研究中记录的变化相比，第一次切割日期的变化在气候变化情景（-9.1 至 -17.1 天）下模拟的温度升高了 +1°C 1991-2016 年（-9.4 至-14.0 天）的区域。总的来说，在 2100 年之前，切割日期的变化和生长季节的扩大导致每年额外削减 1-2 次。因此，在 RCP 4.5 和 8.5 情景中，气候变化使产量提高了 6% 和 15%，增幅最大主要用于随着施肥率增加而动态适应的草地管理。相比之下，^-1 yr ^-1根据国家立法的要求。我们的研究还表明，在干旱年份产量显着下降，当时土壤水分限制了植物生长，但由于土壤的降水量和持水能力相当，这主要在本世纪最后几十年的 RCP 8.5 情景中观察到。