Evacuation models commonly employ pseudorandom sampling from distributions to represent the variability of human behaviour in the evacuation process, otherwise referred to as ‘behavioural uncertainty’. This paper presents a method based on functional analysis and inferential statistics to study the convergence of probabilistic evacuation model results to inform deciding how many repeat simulation runs are required for a given scenario. Compared to existing approaches which typically focus on measuring variance in evacuation times, the proposed method utilises multifactor variance to assess the convergence of a range of different evacuation model outputs, referred to as factors. The factors include crowd density, flowrates, occupant locations, exit usage, and queuing times. These factors were selected as they represent a range of means to assess variance in evacuation dynamics between repeat simulation runs and can be found in most evacuation models. The application of the method (along with a tool developed for its implementation) is demonstrated through two case studies. The first case study consists of an analysis of convergence in evacuation simulation results for a building including 1855 occupants. The second case study is a simple verification test aimed at demonstrating the capabilities of the method. Results from the case studies suggest that multifactor variance assessment provides a more holistic assessment of the variance in evacuation dynamics and results provided by an evacuation model compared to existing methods which adopt single factor analysis. This provides increased confidence in determining an appropriate number of repeat simulation runs to ensure key evacuation dynamics and results which may be influenced by pseudorandom sampling are represented.

疏散模型通常使用分布的伪随机抽样来表示疏散过程中人类行为的变异性，也称为“行为不确定性”。本文提出了一种基于功能分析和推论统计的方法，以研究概率疏散模型结果的收敛性，从而为确定给定场景需要多少次重复仿真提供依据。与通常专注于测量疏散时间方差的现有方法相比，该方法利用多因素方差来评估一系列不同疏散模型输出（称为因素）的收敛性。这些因素包括人群密度，流量，乘员位置，出口使用情况和排队时间。选择这些因素是因为它们代表了评估重复模拟运行之间的疏散动力学方差的方法范围，并且可以在大多数疏散模型中找到。通过两个案例研究证明了该方法的应用（以及为实现该工具而开发的工具）。第一个案例研究包括对包含1855名居住者的建筑物的疏散模拟结果的收敛性分析。第二个案例研究是一个简单的验证测试，旨在证明该方法的功能。案例研究的结果表明，与采用单因素分析的现有方法相比，多因素方差评估可更全面地评估撤离动态变化和撤离模型提供的结果。