Connectivity between spawning grounds and recruitment areas of marine fish species drives population structure and dynamics, and may be affected by climate-induced changes in oceanographic processes. We analysed the variability in recruitment success of larvae to estuarine nursery areas along the Iberian Atlantic coast of four fish species with distinct spawning grounds and periods (Solea solea, Solea senegalensis, Platichthys flesus and Dicentrarchus labrax). Concomitantly, we explored the variations in connectivity patterns between “cold” and “warm” year archetypes. We used a three-dimensional Lagrangian transport particle-tracking model integrating time series of velocity, temperature and salinity fields archived from the Regional Ocean Modelling System. We simulated individual larval dispersal, over extended spawning periods, from multiple coastal spawning areas to estuarine recruitment areas over 20 years (1989–2008). Overall, high inter- and intra-annual variation were found for all species. Nonetheless, highest overall average recruitment estimates were obtained for S. solea and D. labrax (with 7.3% and 5.7% of the particles released in spawning areas reaching a recruitment area, respectively) compared to S. senegalensis and P. flesus (3.4% and 1.7%, respectively). Recruitment estimates were overall higher at earlier spawning dates but peak values occurred at later spawning events. Regarding spawning origin, particles that recruited to the northern part of the Iberian coast were mainly from southern source areas. For estuarine systems located in southern Portugal, the relative contributions of northern and southern coastal spawning areas were more balanced, or with a preponderance of northern spawning areas (namely for S. senegalensis and D. labrax). Recruitment was higher in “warm” years compared to “cold” years, except for P. flesus for which nil recruitment was registered in the southern Iberian coast during “warm” years. Larvae also travelled farther in “warm” years compared to “cold” years. Ultimately, understanding how oceanographic conditions govern larval recruitment to estuarine nursery areas is pivotal to forecast the potential impacts of climate change on species with segregated life histories, and will underpin long term management and safeguarding of estuarine nursery role.

产卵场与海洋鱼类物种招募区之间的连通性驱动着种群结构和动态，并可能受到气候引起的海洋学过程变化的影响。我们分析了幼虫到伊比利亚大西洋沿岸的四种鱼类（产卵场和产卵期不同）（Solea solea，Solea senegalensis，Platethhthys flesus和Dicentrarchus labrax）的河口育苗区招募成功的可变性。）。同时，我们探索了“冷”和“暖”年原型之间的连通性模式的变化。我们使用了三维拉格朗日输运粒子跟踪模型，该模型整合了从区域海洋建模系统存档的速度，温度和盐度场的时间序列。我们模拟了20年间（1989-2008年）从多个沿海产卵区到河口募集区的产卵期延长后幼虫的扩散情况。总体而言，所有物种的年际和年际变化都很大。尽管如此，与之相比，S。solea和D. labrax获得了最高的总体平均招募估计数（分别在产卵区和招募区释放的颗粒分别为7.3％和5.7％）。塞内加尔葡萄球菌和腓特烈葡萄球菌（分别为3.4％和1.7％）。总体上，在较早的产卵期进行的招聘估计数较高，但峰值在较晚的产卵期发生。关于产卵起源，募集到伊比利亚海岸北部的颗粒主要来自南部来源地区。对于位于葡萄牙南部的河口系统，北部和南部沿海产卵区的相对贡献更为均衡，或者以北部产卵区（即塞内加尔沙门氏菌和D. labrax）为主。除了火红假单胞菌，“温暖”年的招聘人数比“寒冷”年的招聘人数更高在“温暖”的年份，伊比利亚南部海岸的招募人数为零。与“寒冷”年份相比，幼虫在“温暖”年份的旅行也更远。最终，了解海洋条件如何控制幼体向河口育苗场的募集对于预测气候变化对生活史相互隔离的物种的潜在影响至关重要，并将为长期管理和维护河口育苗场的作用奠定基础。