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Coupling Epidemiological Models with Social Dynamics
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-18 , DOI: 10.1007/s11538-021-00910-7
Carlo Giambiagi Ferrari 1 , Juan Pablo Pinasco 1 , Nicolas Saintier 2
Affiliation  

In this work we study a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model coupled with a continuous opinion dynamics model. We assume that each individual can take measures to reduce the probability of contagion, and the level of effort each agent applies can change due to social interactions. We propose simple rules to model the propagation of behaviors that modify the level of effort, and analyze their impact on the dynamics of the disease. We derive a two dimensional set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamic of the proportion of the number of infected individuals and the mean value of the effort parameter, and analyze the equilibria of the system. The stability of the endemic phase and disease free equilibria depends only on the mean value of the levels of efforts, and not on the initial distribution of levels of effort.



中文翻译:

将流行病学模型与社会动力学相结合

在这项工作中,我们研究了一个 Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible 模型以及一个连续的意见动态模型。我们假设每个人都可以采取措施降低传染的可能性,并且每个代理所施加的努力水平会因社会互动而改变。我们提出了简单的规则来模拟改变努力水平的行为的传播,并分析它们对疾病动态的影响。我们推导了描述感染人数比例和努力参数平均值的动态的一组二维常微分方程,并分析了系统的平衡。流行阶段和无病平衡的稳定性仅取决于努力水平的平均值,而不取决于努力水平的初始分布。

更新日期:2021-05-19
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