Based on the reconstruction of the monetary flows of a merchant-banking company operating in Barcelona at the beginning of the fifteenth century, this study aims to understand the reasons behind exchange-rate variations in the local currency with respect to the principal European markets, as well as the modalities and predictability of such oscillations. By using real rather than ‘hearsay’ rates, we present new assessments of the seasonal character of exchange rates and their sensitivity to conditions of currency abundance or shortage. In addition, econometric analysis shows that exchange-rate volatility was quite modest and dependent on geographic and macroeconomic factors, such as the system of commercial flows.

中文翻译：

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十五世纪初的巴塞罗那外汇市场

基于对 15 世纪初在巴塞罗那经营的商业银行公司的货币流动的重建，本研究旨在了解当地货币相对于主要欧洲市场的汇率变化背后的原因，如以及这种振荡的形式和可预测性。通过使用真实而不是“传闻”汇率，我们对汇率的季节性特征及其对货币充裕或短缺条件的敏感性进行了新的评估。此外，计量经济学分析表明，汇率波动非常温和，并且取决于地理和宏观经济因素，例如商业流动系统。