Marine ecosystem forecasting is an important innovation in fisheries science with considerable value for industry and management, providing new data-driven means of predicting the distribution and availability of commercially exploited fish stocks over a range of timescales, including near-real-time and seasonal. Marine ecosystem forecasting is rapidly advancing as a field, yet tools produced for fisheries to date focus primarily on predicting species distributions. The next generation of marine ecosystem forecasting products could be enhanced by also incorporating predictions of biological characteristics of fish caught, such as body condition and epidemiological status, thereby expanding the utility of these methods beyond predicting distribution alone. Improving the biological dimensions of marine ecosystem forecasting could allow for optimization of efficiencies in wild-capture fisheries by minimizing discarding and waste and maximizing the value of landed fish. These advancements are of direct benefit to industry and management, address several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to fisheries sustainability and have the potential to support the maintenance of global food and micronutrient security under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here, we describe the current state of the art in marine ecosystem forecasting; review the physical-biological linkages that underlie variability in the body condition of commercially valuable fish and shellfish with particular reference to marine climate change; and outline key considerations for the next generation of marine ecosystem forecasting tools for wild-capture fisheries.

中文翻译：

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实现可持续和气候适应型渔业需要海洋生态系统预测包括鱼类状况

海洋生态系统预测是渔业科学的一项重要创新，对工业和管理具有重要价值，提供了新的数据驱动方法，可以在一系列时间尺度（包括近实时和季节性）内预测商业开发鱼类种群的分布和可用性。海洋生态系统预测作为一个领域正在迅速发展，但迄今为止为渔业生产的工具主要侧重于预测物种分布。下一代海洋生态系统预测产品还可以通过结合对捕获的鱼类的生物学特征（例如身体状况和流行病学状况）的预测来增强，从而扩大这些方法的实用性，而不仅仅是预测分布。改善海洋生态系统预测的生物学维度可以通过最大限度地减少丢弃和浪费并最大限度地提高上岸鱼类的价值来优化野生捕捞渔业的效率。这些进步直接有利于工业和管理，实现了与渔业可持续性有关的若干联合国可持续发展目标，并有可能支持在快速变化的环境条件下维护全球粮食和微量营养素安全。在这里，我们描述了海洋生态系统预测的当前技术水平；审查造成有商业价值的鱼类和贝类身体状况变化的物理-生物联系，特别是在海洋气候变化方面；