We examine the relative ability of inflation targeting and price level targeting monetary policy rules to minimize inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in a commodity-exporting country for supply and demand shocks to global commodity markets. The macroeconomic consequences of oil and non-oil primary commodities differ and affect the relative merits of the alternative monetary policy frameworks. Particularly, the consumption of refined oil products and demand-driven commodity price movements induce highly persistent inflation pressures resulting in a significant deterioration of the inflation-output gap trade-off available to central banks. When such terms-of-trade shocks are prevalent, price level targeting is inferior to inflation targeting.

我们研究了通胀目标制和价格水平目标制货币政策规则的相对能力，以最大限度地减少商品出口国的通胀波动和商业周期波动，以应对全球商品市场的供需冲击。石油和非石油初级商品的宏观经济后果不同，并影响替代货币政策框架的相对优点。特别是成品油的消费和需求驱动的大宗商品价格变动导致高度持续的通胀压力，导致央行可用的通胀-产出缺口权衡显着恶化。当此类贸易条件冲击普遍存在时，价格水平目标不如通胀目标。