This paper describes several ongoing challenges in the field of violence risk assessment (VRA), particularly with respect to establishing acceptable levels of measurement reliability and validity of commonly used risk assessment instruments, and demonstrating their ability to reduce risk and avert harmful outcomes. Drawing on analogous concepts from the risk assessment and management process in the aviation industry, several key lessons and aspirational principles for research and practice in the field of VRA are described. It is argued that significantly more attention is required to evaluate the ability of VRA tools to generate effective risk management plans that measurably lower risk and rates of violent outcomes. Three propositions for advancing common VRA research designs are discussed: (1) improved operationalization of risk management plans and their ability to reduce violence; (2) improved measurement of change in risk status over prospective follow-up periods, and (3) a stronger emphasis on short-term assessments with closer temporal proximity between risk factors and outcomes. Collectively, these advancements may enhance the validity and utility of VRA instruments by permitting better specification of the conditions under which risk factors exert effects, and the development of effective risk management plans that join together explanatory frameworks for the causes of violence with strategies to avoid their recurrence.

本文描述了暴力风险评估 (VRA) 领域的几个持续挑战，特别是在建立常用风险评估工具的可接受的测量可靠性和有效性水平方面，并展示它们降低风险和避免有害结果的能力。借鉴航空业风险评估和管理过程中的类似概念，描述了 VRA 领域研究和实践的几个关键经验教训和理想原则。有人认为，需要更多的注意力来评估 VRA 工具生成有效风险管理计划的能力，这些计划可衡量降低暴力结果的风险和发生率。讨论了推进常见 VRA 研究设计的三个主张：(1) 改进风险管理计划的实施及其减少暴力的能力；(2) 改进了对预期随访期间风险状态变化的测量，以及 (3) 更加强调短期评估，风险因素和结果之间的时间接近度更接近。总的来说，这些进步可以通过更好地说明风险因素产生影响的条件，以及制定有效的风险管理计划，将暴力原因的解释框架与避免其发生的策略结合起来，从而提高 VRA 工具的有效性和实用性。复发。(3) 更加强调短期评估，风险因素和结果之间在时间上更接近。总的来说，这些进步可以通过更好地说明风险因素产生影响的条件，以及制定有效的风险管理计划，将暴力原因的解释框架与避免其发生的策略结合起来，从而提高 VRA 工具的有效性和实用性。复发。(3) 更加强调短期评估，风险因素和结果之间在时间上更接近。总的来说，这些进步可以通过更好地说明风险因素产生影响的条件，以及制定有效的风险管理计划，将暴力原因的解释框架与避免其发生的策略结合起来，从而提高 VRA 工具的有效性和实用性。复发。