Despite the significant adverse consequences of deliberate firesetting, it has been unclear what proportion of individuals repeat this problematic behavior, owing to methodological differences and large variability in reported reoffending rates. A meta-analysis of 25 samples of untreated adults and children with a history of firesetting, examining reoffending over a follow-up period, was conducted. The base rates of reoffending from this meta-analysis indicated that between 57% and 66% of untreated firesetters engage in general reoffending, between 8% and 10% engage in criminal arson, and around 20% engage in deliberate firesetting behavior. The odds of firesetting during the follow-up period were 5 times greater for known firesetters in comparison with other offenders. Clinical and criminological correlates of reoffending, including age, are examined. Implications for enabling evidence-based practice with this population, including defensible risk assessments and treatment provision, are discussed.

尽管故意放火会产生严重的不利后果，但由于方法上的差异以及报告的再犯率的巨大差异，目前尚不清楚有多少人会重复这种有问题的行为。进行了荟萃分析，分析了25名未经治疗的有过火史的成年人和儿童，并随访了其病情。该荟萃分析得出的再犯基准率表明，未经处理的消防员中有57％至66％从事一般性再犯，有犯罪的纵火占8％至10％，有意的纵火行为约占20％。与其他违法者相比，已知的放火者在后续行动期间发生火灾的几率要高出5倍。犯罪的临床和犯罪学相关因素，包括年龄，被检查。讨论了在该人群中开展循证实践的意义，包括可辩护的风险评估和治疗提供。