This paper examines the role of local weather conditions in explaining variations in assault, in sub-tropical Brisbane, Australia. It details the extent to which local variations in weather are important in shaping the necessary preconditions for assault to take place. Results suggest that higher daily temperatures are associated with an increased propensity for assault at the neighborhood level after controlling for seasonal effects. Assaults occur significantly less frequently in summer than in spring and there is a greater propensity for assaults to occur on weekends compared to weekdays. Neighborhood disadvantage, ethnic diversity, and the presence of risky facilities such bars, schools, or shops increased the propensity for assault above and beyond the effect of temperature. Findings are important in their capacity to isolate the effect of the prevailing local weather conditions whilst controlling for seasonal variations, land use, and the socio-economic and demographic context within which assaults took place.

本文考察了澳大利亚亚热带布里斯班当地气候条件在解释袭击变化方面的作用。它详细说明了当地天气变化在多大程度上确定了进行袭击的必要先决条件的程度。结果表明，在控制季节性影响之后，每天的高温会与附近地区发生袭击的可能性增加有关。夏季的袭击发生频率明显低于春季，而与工作日相比，周末发生袭击的可能性更大。邻里的不利条件，种族多样性以及诸如酒吧，学校或商店之类的危险设施的存在，增加了在温度影响之外进行袭击的可能性。