I consider the role of news provided by the media as signals used by investors to learn about partisan conflict. Higher partisan conflict induces uncertainty (by increasing the probability of crises) and gridlock (making tax reforms less likely), both affecting investment returns. The true degree of political disagreement is unobservable to investors, who create expectations based on the observation of informative signals. Using a Bayesian learning model, I illustrate how these signals affect investment decisions. To the extent crises are severe enough, an increase in the partisan conflict reduces expected returns and induces lower investment.

中文翻译：

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党派冲突、新闻和投资者的期望

我认为媒体提供的新闻是投资者用来了解党派冲突的信号。更高的党派冲突会导致不确定性（通过增加危机的可能性）和僵局（使税收改革的可能性降低），两者都会影响投资回报。投资者无法观察到真正的政治分歧程度，他们根据对信息信号的观察来创造预期。我使用贝叶斯学习模型来说明这些信号如何影响投资决策。在危机足够严重的情况下，党派冲突的增加会降低预期回报并导致投资减少。