Addressing urban challenges with nature-based approaches can improve and protect ecosystem services. Yet, urban planning has not efficiently integrated such approaches to manage land use. This paper examines interactions between human and natural systems that result in ecosystem services and changes in land use and land cover in urban areas. It develops a social-ecological model for land use and land cover change, and for ecosystems services that integrates nature-based solutions in urban planning. The model treats spatial variations in ecosystems services as both drivers and consequences of human decision-making in choosing commercial and residential locations that drive land use and land cover change. We tested the social-ecological model in Stockholm County, Sweden, on a 30 × 30 m grid. Results show that accessibility in ecosystem services drives urban residential and commercial development, characterized by non-linearity. Areas around existing urban centers show high accessibility in ecosystem services and high development probabilities, whereas smaller population centers in large areas enjoy high accessibility to ecosystem services and low urban development probabilities. Model results suggest place-specific nature-based strategies for addressing the heterogeneous spatial relationships between ecosystem services and urban development.

用基于自然的方法应对城市挑战可以改善和保护生态系统服务。然而，城市规划并没有有效地整合这些方法来管理土地使用。本文研究了导致生态系统服务以及城市地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化的人类和自然系统之间的相互作用。它为土地利用和土地覆盖变化以及生态系统服务开发了一个社会生态模型，将基于自然的解决方案整合到城市规划中。该模型将生态系统服务的空间变化视为人类在选择推动土地利用和土地覆盖变化的商业和住宅地点时做出决策的驱动因素和结果。我们在30×30 m的网格上测试了瑞典斯德哥尔摩县的社会生态模型。结果表明，生态系统服务的可及性推动了以非线性为特征的城市住宅和商业发展。现有城市中心周边地区生态系统服务可达性高，发展概率高，而大面积较小人口中心的生态系统服务可达性高，城市发展概率低。模型结果提出了解决生态系统服务与城市发展之间异质空间关系的基于特定地点的基于自然的策略。而大面积较小的人口中心享有生态系统服务的高可及性和低的城市发展概率。模型结果提出了解决生态系统服务和城市发展之间异质空间关系的基于地方的自然策略。而大面积较小的人口中心享有生态系统服务的高可及性和低的城市发展概率。模型结果提出了解决生态系统服务和城市发展之间异质空间关系的基于地方的自然策略。