In the brief preface to A Treatise on Probability, Keynes states, ‘It may be perceived that I have been greatly influenced by W. E. Johnson, G. E. Moore and Bertrand Russell, that is, by Cambridge, which, with great debts to the writers of Continental Europe, yet continues in direct succession the English tradition of Locke, Berkeley and Hume, of Mill and Sidgwick’ (J. M. Keynes, 1921, p. v). The authors who have recently stressed the relevance of Keynes ideas on probability have paid special attention to the influence of the former, but not to that of the latter. This article intends to show that the Treatise on Probability is deeply rooted in the history of probabilistic thinking, particularly in the Early Enlightenment (roughly between 1650 and 1750), before mathematicians claimed ownership over the subject. We find that important aspects of Keynes’ notions were already present in Locke and other Early Enlightenment writers, albeit with some note-worthy differences.

中文翻译：

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凯恩斯概率概念的早期启蒙根源

凯恩斯在《概率论》的简短序言中说：“可以看出，我深受 WE Johnson、GE Moore 和 Bertrand Russell 的影响，也就是说，受剑桥大学的影响很大，这对《大陆》杂志的作者有很大的帮助。欧洲，但直接继承了洛克、伯克利和休谟、米尔和西奇威克的英国传统”（JM Keynes, 1921, p. v）。最近强调凯恩斯概率思想相关性的作者特别关注了前者的影响，而不是后者的影响。本文旨在表明，《概率论》深深植根于概率思维的历史，尤其是在数学家声称拥有该主题之前的启蒙运动早期（大约在 1650 年至 1750 年间）。