A bioeconomic model and Monte Carlo simulation were used to analyze alternative management scenarios of partial harvesting schedules in semi-intensive shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) farming, emphasizing profitability, uncertainty, and economic risk. The schedules, including 1, 2, and 3 partial harvests, were studied considering two management scenarios (worst and best). Management improved by using high stocking density and reducing the rearing period. Higher profitability was calculated for Schedule 3 (US$ 6699 ha^-1) in the best scenario, while Schedule 1 yielded the worst result even under the best scenario (US$ 2451 ha^-1). Uncertainty diminished as management improved, as indicated by lower relative variability of the economic indicators. Higher uncertainty was expected for Schedule 1, while similar uncertainty was estimated for schedules 2 and 3. The highest economic risk was estimated for Schedule 1 in the worst scenario where a single pond would have a 27.9% probability of having economic losses. No losses were expected when using the best scenario for Schedule 3. Calculating the effect of averaging the results of 20 ponds rather than only one pond reduced uncertainty (from 76.9–78.4%) and loss probability (98.5%) in Schedule 1. Null loss probability was calculated for 20 ponds in the rest of the schedules. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the main factors affecting net revenues were final shrimp weight, shrimp prices of large shrimp, mortality rate before the first partial harvest, and rate at which the feed conversion ratio increased throughout the rearing period.

使用生物经济模型和蒙特卡洛模拟法来分析半精养对虾（南美对虾）养殖中部分收获计划的替代管理方案，强调获利能力，不确定性和经济风险。在考虑两个管理方案（最坏和最佳）的情况下研究了包括1、2和3个部分收获的时间表。通过使用高放养密度并缩短饲养周期，改善了管理。更高的盈利能力计算附表3（US $6699公顷^-1在最好的情况），而附表1取得了即使在最好的情况下（US $2451公顷最坏的结果^-1）。不确定性随着管理水平的提高而降低，经济指标的相对可变性较低，表明了这一点。预计附表1的不确定性较高，而附表2和3的不确定性相似。在最坏的情况下，附表1的最高经济风险估计为最大，单个池塘遭受经济损失的可能性为27.9％。使用附表3的最佳方案时，预计不会造成损失。计算20个池塘而不是仅一个池塘的结果的平均值所带来的影响减少了附表1中的不确定性（从76.9–78.4％）和损失概率（98.5％）。在其余时间表中计算了20个池塘的概率。敏感性分析表明，影响净收入的主要因素是最终虾的重量，大虾的虾价格，