The paper studies the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on African economies and household welfare using a top-down sequential macro-micro simulation approach. The pandemic is modeled as a supply shock that disrupts economic activities of African countries and then affects households’ consumption behavior, the level of their welfare, and businesses’ investment decisions. The macroeconomic dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to account for informality, a key feature of African economies. We find that COVID-19 could diminish employment in the formal and informal sectors and contract consumption of non-savers and, especially, savers. These contractions would lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen both fiscal and current account deficits. Extreme poverty is expected to increase further in Africa, in particular if the welfare of the poorest households grows at lower rates. We also use the macroeconomic model to analyze the effects of different fiscal policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

中文翻译：

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“不是一个好时机”：使用宏观微观模拟方法评估 COVID-19 对非洲的经济影响


该论文采用自上而下的顺序宏观微观模拟方法，研究了 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对非洲经济和家庭福利的影响。这一流行病被建模为供应冲击，它扰乱了非洲国家的经济活动，进而影响家庭的消费行为、福利水平和企业的投资决策。宏观经济动态一般均衡模型经过校准以考虑非正规性，这是非洲经济的一个关键特征。我们发现，COVID-19 可能会减少正规和非正规部门的就业以及非储蓄者（尤其是储蓄者）的合同消费。这些紧缩将导致非洲经济衰退，并扩大财政和经常账户赤字。非洲的极端贫困预计将进一步加剧，特别是如果最贫困家庭的福利增长速度较低的话。我们还使用宏观经济模型来分析不同财政政策应对 COVID-19 大流行的影响。