Critical nitrogen (N_c) dilution curves have been widely used for the plant N status diagnosis, N management, crop modeling, and remote sensing. Wheat is a major crop worldwide whose N_c dilution curves developed under different conditions (genotype × environment × management) show large parameter variations. Herein, a dataset of 19 nitrogen fertilizer experiments (n = 656) from five wheat planting sites in China was used to evaluate the uncertainty in these curves and explain the sources of differences using the Bayesian theory method. The uncertainty of the fitted curve decreased with the increase in plant biomass. The parameter A₂ of fitted curves of genotype × environment × management combinations showed a greater variation than A₁, with slight parameter differences among different genotypes and planting sites. The variables related to genotype and growth environment, i.e., maximum N concentration, maximum biomass, and accumulated growing degree days during the vegetative growth period, were the sources of differences in curve parameters. Though the N_c curve differences between genotype × environment × management were statistically significant, the nitrogen nutrition index (NNI) differences remained relatively small. This study provides insights for developing a more diverse N_c dilution curve to aid in optimal nitrogen fertilization management in wheat.